An AUC-based Permutation Variable Importance Measure for Random Forests

The random forest (RF) method is a commonly used tool for classification with high dimensional data as well as for ranking candidate predictors based on the so-called random forest variable importance measures (VIMs). However the classification performance of RF is known to be suboptimal in case of strongly unbalanced data, i.e. data where response class sizes differ considerably. Suggestions were made to obtain better classification performance based either on sampling procedures or on cost sensitivity analyses. However to our knowledge the performance of the VIMs has not yet been examined in the case of unbalanced response classes. In this paper we explore the performance of the permutation VIM for unbalanced data settings and introduce an alternative permutation VIM based on the area under the curve (AUC) that is expected to be more robust towards class imbalance. We investigated the performance of the standard permutation VIM and of our novel AUC-based permutation VIM for different class imbalance levels using simulated data and real data. The results suggest that the standard permutation VIM loses its ability to discriminate between associated predictors and predictors not associated with the response for increasing class imbalance. It is outperformed by our new AUC-based permutation VIM for unbalanced data settings, while the performance of both VIMs is very similar in the case of balanced classes. The new AUC-based VIM is implemented in the R package party for the unbiased RF variant based on conditional inference trees. The codes implementing our study are available from the companion website: http://www.ibe.med.uni-muenchen.de/organisation/mitarbeiter/070_drittmittel/janitza/index.html

Schizophrenia-associated HapICE haplotype is associated with increased NRG1 type III expression and high nucleotide diversity

Excitement and controversy have followed neuregulin (NRG1) since its discovery as a putative schizophrenia susceptibility gene; however, the mechanism of action of the associated risk haplotype (HapICE) has not been identified, and specific genetic variations, which may increase risk to schizophrenia have remained elusive. Using a postmortem brain cohort from 37 schizophrenia cases and 37 controls, we resequenced upstream of the type I–IV promoters, and the HapICE repeat regions in intron 1. Relative abundance of seven NRG1 mRNA transcripts in the prefrontal cortex were determined and compared across diagnostic and genotypic groups. We identified 26 novel DNA variants and showed an increased novel variant load in cases compared with controls (χ2=7.815; P=0.05). The average nucleotide diversity (θ=10.0 × 10−4) was approximately twofold higher than that previously reported for BDNF, indicating that NRG1 may be particularly prone to genetic change. A greater nucleotide diversity was observed in the HapICE linkage disequilibrium block in schizophrenia cases (θ(case)=13.2 × 10−4; θ(control)=10.0 × 10−4). The specific HapICE risk haplotype was associated with increased type III mRNA (F=3.76, P=0.028), which in turn, was correlated with an earlier age of onset (r=−0.343, P=0.038). We found a novel intronic five-SNP haplotype ∼730 kb upstream of the type I promoter and determined that this region functions as transcriptional enhancer that is suppressed by SRY. We propose that the HapICE risk haplotype increases expression of the most brain-abundant form of NRG1, which in turn, elicits an earlier clinical presentation, thus providing a novel mechanism through which this genetic association may increase risk of schizophrenia

Growth-inhibitory and cell cycle-arresting properties of the rice bran constituent tricin in human-derived breast cancer cells in vitro and in nude mice in vivo

Tricin, a flavone found in rice bran, inhibits the growth of human-derived malignant MDA-MB-468 breast tumour cells at submicromolar concentrations. As part of the exploration of tricin as a potential cancer chemopreventive agent, we investigated the duration and cell cycle specificity of growth inhibition elicited by tricin in vitro and the effect of tricin on the development of MDA-MB-468 tumours grown in immune-compromised MF-1 mice in vivo. Preincubation of MDA-MB-468 cells with tricin (1-40 microM) for 72 h compromised cell growth after tricin removal, and such irreversibility was not observed in human breast-derived nonmalignant HBL-100 cells. Tricin (>/=5 microM) arrested MDA-MB-468 cells in the G2/M phase of the cell cycle without inducing apoptosis as adjudged by annexin V staining. In nude mice consumption of tricin with the diet (0.2%, w w(-1)) from 1 week prior to MDA-MB-468 cell implantation failed to impede tumour development. Steady-state levels of tricin in plasma, breast tumour tissue and intestinal mucosa, as measured by HPLC, were 0.13 microM and 0.11 and 63 nmol g(-1), respectively. Cells were exposed to tricin (0.11, 1.1 or 11 microM) in vitro for 72 h and then implanted into mice. The volume of tumours in animals bearing cells pre-exposed to 11 microM tricin was less than a third of that in mice with control cells, while tumours from cells incubated with 0.1 or 1.1 microM tricin were indistinguishable from controls. These results suggest that the potent breast tumour cell growth-inhibitory activity of tricin in vitro does not directly translate into activity in the nude mouse bearing the MDA MB-468 tumour. While the results do not support the notion that tricin is a promising candidate for breast cancer chemoprevention, its high levels in the gastrointestinal tract after dietary intake render exploration of its ability to prevent colorectal carcinogenesis propitious

An Integrated Meta-Analysis of Two Variants in HOXA1/HOXB1 and Their Effect on the Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorders

BACKGROUND: HOXA1 and HOXB1 have been strongly posed as candidate genes for autism spectrum disorders (ASD) given their important role in the development of hindbrain. The A218G (rs10951154) in HOXA1 and the insertion variant in HOXB1 (nINS/INS, rs72338773) were of special interest for ASD but with inconclusive results. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis integrating case-control and transmission/disequilibrium test (TDT) studies to clearly discern the effect of these two variants in ASD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Multiple electronic databases were searched to identify studies assessing the A218G and/or nINS/INS variant in ASD. Data from case-control and TDT studies were analyzed in an allelic model using the Catmap software. A total of 10 and 7 reports were found to be eligible for meta-analyses of A218G and nINS/INS variant, respectively. In overall meta-analysis, the pooled OR for the 218G allele and the INS allele was 0.97 (95% CI = 0.76-1.25, P(heterogeneity) = 0.029) and 1.14 (95% CI = 0.97-1.33, P(heterogeneity) = 0.269), respectively. No significant association was also identified between these two variants and ASD risk in stratified analysis. Further, cumulative meta-analysis in chronologic order showed the inclination toward null-significant association for both variants with continual adding studies. Additionally, although the between-study heterogeneity regarding the A218G is not explained by study design, ethnicity, and sample size, the sensitive analysis indicated the stability of the result. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis suggests the HOXA1 A218G and HOXB1 nINS/INS variants may not contribute significantly to ASD risk

A cohort study of reproductive and hormonal factors and renal cell cancer risk in women

We examined the association of reproductive and hormonal factors with renal cell cancer risk in a cohort study of 89 835 Canadian women. Compared with nulliparous women, parous women were at increased risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–3.09), and there was a significant gradient of risk with increasing levels of parity: relative to nulliparous women, women who had X5 pregnancies lasting 4 months or more had a 2.4-fold risk (HR 1⁄4 2.41, 95% CI 1⁄4 1.27–4.59, P for trend 0.01). Ever use of oral contraceptives was associated with a modest reduction in risk. No associations were observed for age at first live birth or use of hormone replacement therapy. The present study provides evidence that high parity may be associated with increased risk of renal cell cancer, and that oral contraceptive use may be associated with reduced risk

Exonic DNA Sequencing of ERBB4 in Bipolar Disorder

The Neuregulin-ErbB4 pathway plays a crucial role in brain development and constitutes one of the most biologically plausible signaling pathways implicated in schizophrenia and, to a lesser extent, in bipolar disorder (BP). However, recent genome-wide association analyses have not provided evidence for common variation in NRG1 or ERBB4 influencing schizophrenia or bipolar disorder susceptibility. In this study, we investigate the role of rare coding variants in ERBB4 in BP cases with mood-incongruent psychotic features, a form of BP with arguably the greatest phenotypic overlap with schizophrenia. We performed Sanger sequencing of all 28 exons in ERBB4, as well as part of the promoter and part of the 3′UTR sequence, hypothesizing that rare deleterious variants would be found in 188 cases with mood-incongruent psychosis from the GAIN BP study. We found 42 variants, of which 16 were novel, although none were non-synonymous or clearly deleterious. One of the novel variants, present in 11.2% of cases, is located next to an alternative stop codon, which is associated with a shortened transcript of ERBB4 that is not translated. We genotyped this variant in the GAIN BP case-control samples and found a marginally significant association with mood-incongruent psychotic BP compared with controls (additive model: OR = 1.64, P-value = 0.055; dominant model: OR = 1.73. P-value = 0.039). In conclusion, we found no rare variants of clear deleterious effect, but did uncover a modestly associated novel variant that could affect alternative splicing of ERBB4. However, the modest sample size in this study cannot definitively rule out a role for rare variants in bipolar disorder and studies with larger sample sizes are needed to confirm the observed association

An experimental study of the intrinsic stability of random forest variable importance measures

BACKGROUND: The stability of Variable Importance Measures (VIMs) based on random forest has recently received increased attention. Despite the extensive attention on traditional stability of data perturbations or parameter variations, few studies include influences coming from the intrinsic randomness in generating VIMs, i.e. bagging, randomization and permutation. To address these influences, in this paper we introduce a new concept of intrinsic stability of VIMs, which is defined as the self-consistence among feature rankings in repeated runs of VIMs without data perturbations and parameter variations. Two widely used VIMs, i.e., Mean Decrease Accuracy (MDA) and Mean Decrease Gini (MDG) are comprehensively investigated. The motivation of this study is two-fold. First, we empirically verify the prevalence of intrinsic stability of VIMs over many real-world datasets to highlight that the instability of VIMs does not originate exclusively from data perturbations or parameter variations, but also stems from the intrinsic randomness of VIMs. Second, through Spearman and Pearson tests we comprehensively investigate how different factors influence the intrinsic stability. RESULTS: The experiments are carried out on 19 benchmark datasets with diverse characteristics, including 10 high-dimensional and small-sample gene expression datasets. Experimental results demonstrate the prevalence of intrinsic stability of VIMs. Spearman and Pearson tests on the correlations between intrinsic stability and different factors show that #feature (number of features) and #sample (size of sample) have a coupling effect on the intrinsic stability. The synthetic indictor, #feature/#sample, shows both negative monotonic correlation and negative linear correlation with the intrinsic stability, while OOB accuracy has monotonic correlations with intrinsic stability. This indicates that high-dimensional, small-sample and high complexity datasets may suffer more from intrinsic instability of VIMs. Furthermore, with respect to parameter settings of random forest, a large number of trees is preferred. No significant correlations can be seen between intrinsic stability and other factors. Finally, the magnitude of intrinsic stability is always smaller than that of traditional stability. CONCLUSION: First, the prevalence of intrinsic stability of VIMs demonstrates that the instability of VIMs not only comes from data perturbations or parameter variations, but also stems from the intrinsic randomness of VIMs. This finding gives a better understanding of VIM stability, and may help reduce the instability of VIMs. Second, by investigating the potential factors of intrinsic stability, users would be more aware of the risks and hence more careful when using VIMs, especially on high-dimensional, small-sample and high complexity datasets

Type III Nrg1 Back Signaling Enhances Functional TRPV1 along Sensory Axons Contributing to Basal and Inflammatory Thermal Pain Sensation

Type III Nrg1, a member of the Nrg1 family of signaling proteins, is expressed in sensory neurons, where it can signal in a bi-directional manner via interactions with the ErbB family of receptor tyrosine kinases (ErbB RTKs) [1]. Type III Nrg1 signaling as a receptor (Type III Nrg1 back signaling) can acutely activate phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase (PtdIns3K) signaling, as well as regulate levels of α7* nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, along sensory axons [2]. Transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) is a cation-permeable ion channel found in primary sensory neurons that is necessary for the detection of thermal pain and for the development of thermal hypersensitivity to pain under inflammatory conditions [3]. Cell surface expression of TRPV1 can be enhanced by activation of PtdIns3K [4], [5], [6], making it a potential target for regulation by Type III Nrg1. We now show that Type III Nrg1 signaling in sensory neurons affects functional axonal TRPV1 in a PtdIns3K-dependent manner. Furthermore, mice heterozygous for Type III Nrg1 have specific deficits in their ability to respond to noxious thermal stimuli and to develop capsaicin-induced thermal hypersensitivity to pain. Cumulatively, these results implicate Type III Nrg1 as a novel regulator of TRPV1 and a molecular mediator of nociceptive function

Alcoholic beverages and risk of renal cell cancer

Using a mailed questionnaire, we investigated the risk of renal cell cancer in relation to different types of alcoholic beverages, and to total ethanol in a large population-based case–control study among Swedish adults, including 855 cases and 1204 controls. Compared to non-drinkers, a total ethanol intake of >620 g month−1 was significantly related to a decreased risk of renal cell cancer (odds ratio (OR) 0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4–0.9; P-value for trend=0.03). The risk decreased 30–40% with drinking more than two glasses per week of red wine (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–0.9), white wine (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.4–1.0), or strong beer (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–1.0); there was a clear linear trend of decreasing risk with increasing consumption of these beverages (P-values for trends <0.05)